What Happens When The Neo-Vintage Era is Over?

Think about some of your favourite watches released by major brands in the last year. How many of these watches were based on a design less than 10, or even 20, years old? Not many, if any. Everyone loved the new take on the TAG Heuer Carrera, which first debuted 70 years ago. People were surprised by the Swatch x Blancpain collab, inspired by another 70-year-old model. Patek Philippe focussed on the Aquanaut, which is a comparative spring chicken at 26 years old — though you could argue that the Aquanaut is itself a riff on the Nautilus, which is nearly 50 years old. We could go on, but you get the point.

On one hand, this isn't an issue. Fine timepieces are sold on the pillars of tradition and longevity, if Manufactures cycled through designs every other season, it's a bit hard to argue the tradition — plus it would cost a fortune in development. For this reason, we constantly hear about the 'golden age' of watch design — a period from the late 50s to the early 70s where technical advances and design innovation gave birth to some of the most enduring and legendary watches of all time. And watch brands are still relying on them today.

In the last few decades or so, the scales of historical inspiration have tipped too far. No longer is the watch industry one that draws inspiration from their own archives but rather recycles them. More brands are imitating their own heritage rather than evolving historical designs into something new. In part, this is driven by consumer demand. Vintage watches have emerged as a significant force, and the high prices and unique looks have inspired the makers of new watches, to look to the past. So now watch boutiques are crammed with watches with luminous material in the colour of old radium, smaller case sizes and dials loosely described as 'tropical'. For many in the industry, the trend can be summed up by the Tudor Black Bay. A neo-vintage concoction that serves as a 'greatest hits' version of vintage dive watches, which is now, much like the Omega Speedmaster, available in enough flavours to make Baskin & Robbins jealous. Clearly, it's been working, as the watches are great quality, look good, and people are more than happy to buy into the nostalgia. Until they're not.

Because here's the truth about watches. For all that they're solid on tradition and longevity, they are subject to the ups and downs of trends just like everything else. So by relying too hard on their archives, watch brands risk stagnating and getting left behind when the trend wave moves on. This ebb and flow is natural — brands go in and out of favour. But the bigger issue will take decades to play out. If everyone is busy leaning on Golden Era designs for their inspiration today, what are they going to look back on in 20 or 30 years' time if no one is designing anything original? Or is it reissues all the way down?